PRE-LAUNCH: Rules may be finalized before Season 1. Exact season dates will be published in the pinned post and site status.
The Herd Trade is a public skill-based experiment: participants express a directional view and the system records an auditable, fixed-cadence BTC/USDC perpetual signal. It is not an offer of investment management.
Signal and rounds
- Instrument: BTC/USDC perpetual, with 10,000 USDC starting capital and 1x leverage.
- Rounds are fixed at 00:00, 08:00, and 16:00 UTC.
- Reply BUY or 1 for a long signal; reply SELL or 2 for a short signal.
- Each accepted signal is a fixed 0.001 BTC intent.
- Reply directly to the round's root post. For each X user ID, only that user's first valid signal in each round counts.
- Edited, deleted, ambiguous, unfilled, and risk-rejected signals do not score.
- Opening exposure is subject to a $10,000 one-sided cap. At month end, positions close and the experiment restarts.
Scoring and leaderboards
Current proposal: exactly eight hours after a fill, compare the entry direction against BTCUSDC mark price. A BUY is correct when the later mark is higher; a SELL is correct when it is lower; equal is a push. Unfilled signals do not score.
- Weekly eligibility requires at least 10 scored calls; monthly eligibility requires at least 30.
- Ties are resolved by cumulative directional return, then more scored calls, then the earlier time the result was reached.
- Trading net profit is period-end exchange account equity minus period-start exchange account equity, adjusted for external deposits and withdrawals, after all winning and losing trades, trading fees, and funding.
- The weekly prize pool is 10% of positive weekly trading net profit.
- The monthly prize pool is positive monthly trading net profit remaining after all weekly prizes accrued or paid, floored at zero.
- Both pools are split among the top three at 50% / 30% / 20%. No profit means no prize.
- Automated X direct-message notifications are used for results and winners when the feature is enabled.
Prize claims and eligibility
- Prizes are paid only in USDT on BNB Smart Chain (BEP-20).
- A winner has 7 days to claim. Wrong network or wrong address is the claimant's responsibility; blockchain transfers can be irreversible.
- We will never ask for a seed phrase or private key.
- Multiple-account or other cheating cancels eligibility.
- The project stops at a 50% drawdown from the highest recorded account equity, or after 30 operating days if average participation per round is below 50.
Status
Season dates are not fixed on this page. The exact dates will be posted in the pinned X thread and site status before launch.